Sunday, April 06, 2008

Beat 2424/49th Ward Criminal Stats from 3/07 to 3/08, Improving, but 15th of 50. 2008 2424 Fifth Safest Regional Beat; 49th -9th Safest Ward (of 50)

RP Blogs focus on crime. The actual regional statistics for all crime appear, below, from Clear Map. Most directly relate to the population density in an area with lower populations and cemeteries seemingly safer. Beat 2424, to its credit, is a relatively racially integrated Beat. However, Beat 2424 contains a census tract with an alleged population that appears extremely underestimated. The 24th District, overall, claimed a significant drop in crime during January and February (could it be, the weather?), but March is unclear without further research.

Recent Local Crime Apparently Solved

For those unaware, the 7300 N. Ridge/2000 W. Chase $12 thugging was 'marked solved' on Chicago ClearMap by the Chicago Police. The crime is also alleged to have taken place at the 2000 Block of Chase. Complaints were likely filed in court, because arrests were reported. Convictions require the complaining witness to show up in court. Sometimes, this takes a bit of reasonable effort by a complaining witness, since subpoenas are sometimes overlooked. If the alleged victim is reading this, then show up to court and get the 'telephone numbers' (plural) of the prosecuting attorneys in the court room. Perhaps, Lorraine Swanson can look into whether there was an oversight on Clear Map or the names of the accused.

Positive Loitering, How to Report Grafitti and other Thoughts

The idea of 'positive loitering' was suggested by an experienced 2424 Beat member. It makes the most sense. Those who are concerned should walk their dogs, travel in groups of neighbors (to areas of concern). We are supposed to observe, with a law abiding presence, those with bad manners. This also encourages a bit of affirmative duty, where those with poor manners get out of control. For those interested in the finer art of 'positive loitering' ask about it on Beat 2424's BBS. The 2424 CAPS page is here. The 24th District Official Page is here. Finally, to report grafitti, you can use this online form.

How the Conclusions were derived and interpreted from the CPD Clear Map:

For this Annual Review, the 49th Ward rated fifteenth in the number of 'criminal reports' prepared from 3/2007 to 3/2008. The 49th Ward is 'in the white' so to speak on Clear Map, but arguably has a higher population than its neighbors. Beat 2424 is doing quite well 'in 2008' at 'fifth safest' for the region (of 13), compared with Annual totals at sixth safest. However, the census tract statistics and area covers a different region; it appears confusing on review, since the alleged population of 10,706 seems incorrect and less than reality.

As suggested, for the purposes of this report, 'the safest' is defined as the entire Beat or Ward with the 'fewest police reports.' Some Beats have good neighborhoods/pockets within them. Some crimes may go unreported or prove questionable. Also, complaints, such as assault, battery, domestic orders of protection, and theft reports may be the subject of 'he said/she said' scrutiny.

One Resident's Inquisitive Interpretation of the Data

The 2008 reporting area on ClearMap, Citywide, from 1/1/2008 to 3/30/08 suggests, as follows by lowest crime reports by Ward is, as follows:

1. 48 Ward - 275 police reports

2. 50th Ward -

3. 41st Ward -

4. 45th Ward -

5. 19th Ward -

6. 39th Ward -

7. 33rd Ward -

8. 38th Ward - 341 reports

9. 49th Ward - 352 reports

10. 40th Ward - 360 Reports

The gap between the 49th and the safest 48th Ward was 77 police reports as of March 30, 2008. However, the number of solved crimes may prove significant, as well. Perhaps, Craig Gernhardt or Tom Mannis has more time to delve into this puzzle, further. I don't have time to rake that muck, now. The 49th Ward is allegedly the 9th Safest, overall for the 90 day reporting period starting in January and ending on the thirtieth of March provided the data is reasonable.

Police Report Statistics by Beat on Chicago's North Side

BY BEAT, in our region (with fewest reports of crime on top) for the last 90 days. This covers 13 Beats across the north wards. The annual statistics provide further information on some of the boundaries.

1. 2022 - 33 police reports (see perimeters, below)

2. 2013 - 48 police reports

3. 2423 - 56 police reports

4. 2431 - 64 police reports

5. 2424 - 66 police reports (most are nearer to Howard but a block or blocks west of Ridge). The smaller homes nearer to St. Scholastica and close to La Cocina di Donatela are good buys for rehab, IMHO. Catholics with daughters who will enroll at St. Scholatica may want to consider their options in a down market. The Beat reports significantly less than a police report a day. I assume that traffic charges are a separate matter.

Beat 2424 has 33 more reports of crime than the safest Beat 2022, which includes Rosehill Cemetery.

WORST BEAT on Northside:

13. Beat 2433 - 136 reports (see perimeter, below)


The current ANNUAL WARD by WARD figure from the least to more police reports, subject to change (from 3/29/2007 to 3/30/2008):

1. 41st Ward - 1499 reports

2. 45th Ward - 1501 reports

3. 19th Ward - 1551 reports

4. 50th Ward - 1569 Police Reports (This may include the Obama/Osama paper graffiti trespass at Lunt and Sacremento)

5. 48th Ward - 1580 Police Reports

15. 49th Ward - 2068 Police Reports

50. 42nd Ward - 7861 Police Reports

Moore needs to think about improvement, rather than trying to put a spin on being 15th out of 50 Wards. Our neighboring 50th Ward is the fourth safest. However, it has a significantly lower population than the 49th, so this may be a fact of life for us until residents demonstrate more concern, among other things.

ANNUAL BEAT Review - of Far North Side, of the Beats that include the 49th Ward perimeter, the 2424 Beat fares, as follows for the last 12 Months, with the Safest on top:

1. 2022 - 177 Police Reports (Kenmore, Broadway, Bryn Mawr; Mostly Loyola U/Lakefront)

2. 2012 - 292 (Peterson, Western, Foster, Ashland; Mostly Rosehill Cemetery) Isn't this the 40th Ward?

3. 2421 - 313 (Pratt, Clark (east), Lunt (south), Lakefront; Craig's Beat?)

4. 2013 - 322 (Elmdale, Broadway, Clark (west), Foster)

5. 2423 - 328 police reports (Lunt (north), Clark (east), Jarvis, Lakefront)

6. 2424 -431 police reports (Pratt, Clark, Howard, Ridge (east)); it yellows in the denser populated apartment in northwest corner.

11. 2411 - 580 police reports (Kedzie, Howard, Ridge(west), Pratt) (Bernie's Ward is most of Beat 2411!Am I mistaken? Or is the crime mostly west of Western?)


13. 2433 - 705 police reports (Peterson, Ridge, Devon, Lakefront) Note: This was where the Dalof murder by Hollywood Video took place. I believe that this is also within blocks of where the police couple faced off and the wife than committed suicide on the sidewalk, but she and her husband actually lived a block or two west of the Lamp Post. Does anyone remember that one?

I understand that the Beats are supposedly divided by population density, not just by area. However, I don't think that Loyola University Students and dead folks are a very hostile bunch, so those that handle 2022 and 2012 are needed for coverage based upon the sheer area and the potential challenge, not the actual crime rate.

Criminal Due Process in Court

In a criminal court, a prosecutor (the attorney who represents Police and Illinois) must prove a defendent's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. A judge or jury needs not do backflips with conceivability before finding someone guilty. As a matter of law no defendent is ever considered "innocent" after verdict contrary to news reports. They are simply found 'not guilty,' because the trier of fact (judge or jury) must find that a defendent (the accused/subject) is "guilty beyond a reasonable doubt." Crime and actual/appropriate punishment is a evasive concept that can cause unneeded agony.

The Now Fascinating Census Tract 010200

One final note for future comment. Beat 2424 contains part of 'census tract 010200.' This tract is a densely populated area of primarily apartments and condominiums. The 2000 census seems ridiculous when it estimates that area at only 10,706 residents. The 2000 census reported a 7% unemployment rate. It also reported that over 2100 of our residents 'were earning wages' at the poverty level.

The census is based upon self-reporting and arguably tax mumbo jumbo, as well, for some but not all. This census tract bounded by Ridge, Howard, Ashland, and Touhy reported quite a bit of crime. Strangely, some census tracts are mostly beach; during the winter, there were no reports of crime. Therefore, tracking crime in some Beats (Cemetery/University dominated) and census tracts (beach (821500), industrial or Forest Preserve dominated) can be deceptive, as well.


Over the last four or five years, bloggers have emerged and begun to track individual crimes. This puts a face and an image on events. This has an advantages, but does not put a big picture perspective on things. Micromanaging a few events may stop major ones. However, paying attention to the big picture may make the situation more understandable. Perhaps, GIS stats in the suburbs may prove both embarrassing or illuminating due to the lower population densities.

Most of us want our Community/Ward to have the lowest crime rate in Chicago. Perhaps, some disagree for what seems to me like demented reasons. Frankly, some of our beats have noticeably low crime rates, when contrasted with other Chicago beats. However, the numbers can be deceptive yet certainly improve. We don't have wait for incumbent politicians to tell us to stroll, do we? Start walking your dogs, pulling out the strollers, taking a jog, or strolling with some new acquaintances or friends! You might stop a crime.

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